Navigating an Uncertain Future Amid Geopolitical, Environmental, and Technological Risks
The 20th edition of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risk Report has been released, offering valuable insights into the biggest global risks of 2025 and beyond. This widely anticipated report coincides with the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, held from January 20-24, 2025, and provides risk professionals with critical intelligence for shaping their strategies.
The Global Risk Report 2025 is based on data from the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) 2024-2025, capturing perspectives from over 900 experts worldwide. The report classifies risks by their short-term (two-year) and long-term (ten-year) severity, identifying emerging threats across economic, environmental, geopolitical, social, and technological domains.
Key Takeaways for Brokers and Risk Managers
Top Global Risks in 2025
According to the report, the top risks that could cause material crises on a global scale in 2025 include:
- State-based armed conflicts (23%)
- Extreme weather events (14%)
- Geoeconomic confrontation (8%)
- Misinformation and disinformation (7%)
- Social polarization (6%)
These risks reflect a world increasingly fractured by geopolitical tensions, environmental instability, and the spread of misinformation.
Long-Term Risks: Environmental Concerns Dominate
Over a two-year outlook, the biggest concerns include:
- Misinformation and disinformation
- Extreme weather events
- State-based conflicts
- Social polarization
- Cyber espionage and warfare
On a ten-year horizon, environmental risks take center stage:
- Extreme weather events
- Biodiversity and ecosystem collapse
- Critical changes to Earth’s systems
- Natural resource shortages
- Misinformation and disinformation
The dominance of climate-related risks in long-term rankings highlights the increasing urgency of environmental challenges, reinforcing the need for proactive risk mitigation strategies.
Economic Risks Take a Backseat
Despite rising global concerns over inflation, recession, and financial instability, economic risks ranked surprisingly low in the report. The highest-ranking economic risk for 2025 was an economic downturn (5%), placing sixth on the list. Other economic risks, such as crime and illicit financial activity (2%), ranked even lower at 15th place.
This suggests a shift in global risk perception, with intangible threats like misinformation, polarization, and climate change seen as more pressing than traditional economic risks.
Declining Optimism and Growing Geopolitical Instability
The report highlights a growing pessimism among experts, with 52% of respondents expecting an unsettled global outlook over the next two years and 31% predicting further turbulence.
The biggest drivers of uncertainty include:
- The intensifying impacts of extreme weather events
- The potential for geopolitical conflicts to expand or escalate
- The weakening of trust in global institutions
The geopolitical landscape is particularly fragile, with state-based conflicts identified as the most immediate threat. The Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East, and the conflict in Sudan were specifically mentioned as areas of concern.
Societal Fragmentation and Rising Inequality
The report also warns of deepening social divisions, stating that:
- Wealth inequality is seen as a fundamental risk
- Social polarization, forced migration, and restrictions on civil freedoms are rising concerns
- Trust in governing institutions is eroding, making risk management more difficult
For risk managers, this fragmentation means greater unpredictability in social and political environments, affecting everything from business operations to regulatory policies.
Environmental Risks: From Long-Term Threats to Immediate Crises
Since the launch of the Global Risk Report in 2006, environmental risks have steadily moved from future concerns to urgent crises.
- Extreme weather events are now ranked as the top risk over ten years for the second consecutive year
- Climate change impacts are intensifying, with higher disaster frequencies and severity
- Younger respondents and public sector leaders rate pollution risks higher than the private sector
This shift reinforces the critical need for businesses to integrate environmental risk management into their long-term strategies.
Technology Risks: Underestimated but Growing
Despite rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technology, technology risks ranked surprisingly low in the short-term outlook.
However, the report cautions against complacency, warning that:
- The rapid adoption of AI could lead to unforeseen risks
- Cybersecurity threats, including cyber espionage and warfare, are increasing
- Regulatory challenges around AI governance remain unresolved
For brokers and risk managers, cyber risk insurance and AI governance frameworks will be key areas of focus in the coming years.
What This Means for Risk Professionals
The Global Risk Report 2025 paints a picture of a divided world facing complex, interconnected risks. For brokers and risk managers, this means:
- A heightened need for adaptability and foresight to navigate emerging threats
- Greater emphasis on geopolitical and environmental risk assessments
- A proactive approach to misinformation and cybersecurity challenges
- Stronger collaboration between public and private sectors to mitigate social and economic risks
The Road Ahead for Risk Management
As the risk landscape continues to evolve, the key to successful risk management will be anticipation, collaboration, and strategic planning. Brokers and risk managers must:
- Stay informed about global risk trends to adjust their strategies
- Develop resilient frameworks for handling economic, geopolitical, and environmental uncertainties
- Emphasize risk awareness among businesses and policymakers to drive proactive decision-making
The WEF Global Risk Report 2025 serves as a powerful tool for risk professionals looking to better understand and navigate the challenges of the future.