South Asia continues to grapple with the growing vagaries of extreme climate risks, leaving millions increasingly exposed to recurrent, devastating disasters. Communities across the region continue to confront these uncertainties, often with limited capacity and resources for recovery. The recent flood tragedy in Nepal’s Rasuwa district, which claimed several lives and caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure, is a stark reminder of the region’s vulnerability. More importantly, it illustrates how climate-induced hazards can interact and cascade, with one extreme event triggering or amplifying another, thereby compounding losses and making disaster risk increasingly complex and difficult to manage.
A World Bank report on ‘Climate Change Action Plan- South Asia Road Map indicated 2021-25 in 2021 750 million people in the eight countries in South Asians —Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—were subjected to more than one climate-related disasters in the last two decades. Flood damage, food and water insecurity, and extreme heat from rising temperatures are the main drivers that could devastate the lives of some of the world’s poorest and most susceptible populations. The anticipated losses from climate change in GDP per capita for countries like Nepal 13 per cent) and India (10 per cent) are higher than the global average of about seven per cent as predicted in 2100. The above forecast clearly shows how global warming and greenhouse gas emissions can exacerbate spiralling GDP losses over the long term.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) report Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia, the economic costs of climate change in the region are expected to increase significantly over time. If the world continues on a fossil-fuel-intensive path without substantial efforts to reduce emissions, South Asia could lose around 1.8% of its annual GDP by 2050. This loss could rise sharply to 8.8% by 2100 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
The impact will vary across countries. The Maldives is expected to suffer the largest economic loss, while by 2050 the estimated annual GDP losses are 2.0% for Bangladesh, 1.4% for Bhutan, 1.8% for India, 2.2% for Nepal, and 1.2% for Sri Lanka. If the world continues to depend heavily on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, South Asia could face significant economic losses due to climate change. Under such a scenario, climate change could reduce the region’s economic output by the equivalent of 1.8% of annual GDP by 2050, rising to as much as 8.8% by 2100.
These losses could be reduced if the world moves away from a fossil-fuel-dependent development path and shifts towards a low-carbon economy. This would involve greater use of renewable energy, lower dependence on coal, oil and gas, improved energy efficiency, stronger climate policies, cleaner industries and transport, and significant reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions.
The UNDRR’s Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 reported that tropical cyclones alone caused approximately US$135 billion in global economic losses in 2024. The report highlighted that, despite significant improvements in monitoring and reporting of hydrometeorological hazards, weather-related disasters remained among the year’s most devastating catastrophes, with climate change increasingly intensifying their frequency, severity, and impacts.
Floods and flash floods affected communities across virtually every region of the world, resulting in substantial loss of life, displacement, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Severe storms and tropical cyclones caused widespread devastation across the Asia-Pacific and Caribbean regions, while winter storms brought blizzards, landslides, and flooding to parts of Central Asia.
Taken together, these events demonstrate the growing exposure and vulnerability of societies and economies to climate-related hazards. They also underscore the urgent need to move beyond reactive disaster response towards anticipatory risk management, supported by robust multi-hazard early warning systems, disaster risk reduction, resilient infrastructure, and climate adaptation measures.
Concerned about the growing impacts of emerging climate-related hazards, the above report added that the United Nations has called for intensified global action. Recognising the critical importance of preserving the world’s cryosphere, the UN designated 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and proclaimed 2025–2034 as the Decade on Combating Sand and Dust Storms. These initiatives underscore the increasing need to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to a widening spectrum of climate-related hazards. In this context, Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) are pivotal to reducing disaster risk, strengthening preparedness, and minimising the human, economic, and environmental impacts of such emerging and intensifying hazards.
The Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, launched in March 2022, seeks to achieve universal coverage of early warning systems within five years, enabling countries and communities to anticipate better and respond to climate-related risks. Its success, however, depends not merely on the availability of warning systems, but on developing a holistic risk-literacy framework that translates warnings into informed decision-making and anticipatory action, fosters a risk culture that is religiously embedded in lifestyle, and strengthens societal resilience while reducing disaster losses.
Authored by
Prof ( Dr) Abhijit K Chattoraj – Chartered Insurer
